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The ‘Hormuz Shock,’ China’s 15th FYP, and Guangdong’s Energy Dilemma — The ‘Hormuz Shock,’ China’s 15th FYP, and Guangdong’s Energy Dilemma

This issue brief by Dominik Mierzejewski examines how the Middle East conflict, particularly the disruption of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, reinforces the strategic logic underpinning China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030). Contrary to analyses that focus primarily on great-power competition or China’s diplomatic posture, the brief argues that the crisis highlights a fundamental challenge for China’s technological modernization agenda: the dependence of advanced industrial development on secure and affordable energy supplies. The author writes that Beijing has responded by strengthening energy security through a combination of domestic fossil-fuel production, renewable-energy expansion, strategic reserves, grid modernization, and regional power-market integration. Particular attention is paid to Guangdong and Southern China, where dependence on imported LNG exposes key centers of advanced manufacturing to external shocks, writes Mierzejewski. Read the brief here.

Report of the Taiwan-Nordic Forum 2026: Resilience as Defense — Report of the Taiwan-Nordic Forum 2026: Resilience as Defense

The 6th Taiwan-Nordic Forum, titled ‘Resilience as Defense,’ was convened on April 15, 2026, in Stockholm. The forum, organized by the Stockholm Taiwan Center of the Institute for Security and Development Policy, served as a platform for Nordic, Baltic, and Taiwanese experts and scholars to discuss emerging common defense challenges linked to gray-zone tactics in Taiwan, the Nordic, and the Baltic regions. It was the first time the forum extended its scope to Baltic states, marking an important step towards deepening cooperation and promoting knowledge exchange, elements that constitute the cornerstone of strengthened national and international resilience. Read the event report here.

Beyond Hormuz: Japan’s Strategic Balancing Between Iran and the United States — Beyond Hormuz: Japan’s Strategic Balancing Between Iran and the United States

Anne Weiler writes that Tokyo has successfully navigated a period of heightened U.S.-Iran tensions in the Hormuz crisis, balancing its national priorities without alienating Washington. However, questions remain about the sustainability of this strategy: how long can Japan maintain this delicate balancing act? The next emergency may occur much closer to home, and when it does, Japan will have to decide whether its postwar restraints remain a source of stability or have become a strategic liability, writes Weiler. Read this piece here.

FACTSHEET: Reading CPEC 2.0 Beyond Connectivity: A Corridor, a Strategy, or a Strategic Dependency? — FACTSHEET: Reading CPEC 2.0 Beyond Connectivity: A Corridor, a Strategy, or a Strategic Dependency?

This ISDP Fact Sheet on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), prepared by the Stockholm Centre for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs (SCSA-IPA), offers a timely reminder that CPEC should no longer be understood merely as an infrastructure initiative. It must be read as the evolving strategic architecture of China’s long-term presence in Pakistan and the wider Indian Ocean region. Beginning as a transport and energy corridor connecting Xinjiang to Gwadar, CPEC has now entered a more complex second phase that emphasizes industrialization, technology, agriculture, Special Economic Zones (SEZs), and digital connectivity. This Fact Sheet is a part of the SCSA-IPA's research project titled "The Silk Noose: China's Power Architecture in South Asia and Indian Ocean Region". Read and download it here.

China’s Strategic Corridor in Pakistan: Progress, Dependency, and the Uncertain Future of CPEC — China’s Strategic Corridor in Pakistan: Progress, Dependency, and the Uncertain Future of CPEC

This Focus Asia paper by Jagannath Panda, Anne Weiler, Sevil Khikmatova, and Tristan Eng analyses that while CPEC Phase I delivered visible gains in roads, energy infrastructure, digital connectivity, and Gwadar Port, it also entrenched structural dependency through mounting debt, political alignment, and reliance on Chinese finance, technology, and security arrangements. Rather than driving broad-based industrial transformation, Phase I exposed Pakistan’s institutional fragility, regional inequalities, and governance challenges. The transition to CPEC Phase II or “CPEC 2.0” marks a strategic shift from large-scale infrastructure financing toward deeper economic integration through Special Economic Zones, green technologies, mining, and private-sector partnerships, write the authors. The paper concludes that CPEC has evolved beyond a development initiative into a long-term mechanism of strategic influence, embedding China within Pakistan’s economic and political architecture and strengthening its broader Eurasian ambitions.

Innovation Under Fire: Ukraine’s Wartime Adaptation and the Future of European Security — Innovation Under Fire: Ukraine’s Wartime Adaptation and the Future of European Security

This issue brief by Melita Phachulia argues that Ukraine represents an emerging model of adaptive statehood, in which innovation is continuous, decentralized, and institutionalized through platforms such as BRAVE1 and the Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine. Under sustained military and hybrid pressure, governance, technology, industry, and society adapt in parallel, blurring traditional civilian-military boundaries. Ukraine’s experience demonstrates that modern warfare is defined not only by kinetic capabilities but also by the resilience of interconnected digital, industrial, and institutional systems. For Europe, this model offers critical insights into the future of security, where adaptability, cyber resilience, industrial scalability, and cross-sectoral innovation are becoming crucial to strategic stability and collective defense, writes Phachulia. Read the brief here.

Taiwan’s Labor Shortages in Key Sectors and the Skill Mismatch — Taiwan’s Labor Shortages in Key Sectors and the Skill Mismatch

Alice Baravelli writes that the labor shortages in Taiwan’s semiconductor sector are the result of multiple interconnected demographic, educational, and cultural factors rather than simply a consequence of demographic decline. Addressing this challenge will require sustained cooperation between government, industry, and educational institutions to better integrate and realign these interconnected dimensions, writes Baravelli. What remains clear is that labor shortages have evolved into a matter of national strategic concern, as they affect the foundation of Taiwan’s economy, its central role in the global semiconductor supply chain, and its broader international standing, writes the author. Read this piece here.

Maritime Order in Asia: Australia and the Indo-Pacific — Maritime Order in Asia: Australia and the Indo-Pacific

On March 31, 2026, the Indo-Pacific Research Centre (IPRC) and the Institute for Security and Development Policy (ISDP) co-organised a special online discussion featuring Professor Bec Strating on the theme of ‘Maritime Order in Asia: Australia and the Indo-Pacific’. This report summarizes Professor Bec Strating’s presentation, which explored Australia’s maritime security agenda. The discussion examined how Australia’s identity as an ocean-dependent state shapes its security outlook across the Indian, Pacific, and Southern Oceans. It further explored Australia’s construction and promotion of the Indo-Pacific as a strategic maritime region amid shifting global power dynamics. In particular, the discussion focused on the context of intensifying the U.S.-China competition, uncertainty in traditional alliances, and the growing importance of middle powers’ engagement. Read the report here.

Chips, Code, and Control: Rewriting the Economics of Old Tech Wars — Chips, Code, and Control: Rewriting the Economics of Old Tech Wars

This issue brief by Abhivardhan and Jagannath Panda analyses that contemporary techno-geopolitics is no longer a unified “tech cold war,” but a fragmented competition across two distinct domains: semiconductors and artificial intelligence ecosystems. The semiconductor contest is shaped by export controls, manufacturing chokepoints, strategic denial, and industrial subsidies. By contrast, AI ecosystems remain more networked and commercially interoperable through data flows, cloud infrastructure, open-source models, and cross-border talent mobility, argue Abhivardhan and Jagannath Panda. This brief contends that states misread technological competition when they treat chips and AI as a single geopolitical battlefield. Read and download the brief here.

Pax Silica: AI realigns global power balance — Pax Silica: AI realigns global power balance

Jagannath Panda writes for The Korea Times that Pax Silica represents something larger than a technology partnership. It reflects the emergence of a new Indo-Pacific strategic logic where semiconductors, cyber systems, digital networks, critical minerals and industrial resilience are becoming central pillars of regional order. The future balance of power in the Indo-Pacific will increasingly be determined not only by military strength but also by who builds the most trusted technological and economic ecosystems, writes Panda. He further writes that the Quad’s continued relevance lies precisely in its ability to adapt to this changing reality. Its success, however, will depend on how effectively it can build durable partnerships beyond its four members. Read this piece in The Korea Times here.

Events »

29 Jun

Digital Taiwan Lecture Series – Bridging Nordic Dual-Use Innovation and Taiwan’s Defense Ecosystem
22 Sep

Will China deliver? China’s next decade and the consequences for Europe: Final Conference – EuroHub4Sino
Brussels

Publications »

Report of the Taiwan-Nordic Forum 2026: Resilience as Defense

Niklas Swanström, Yi-Chieh Chen and Alice Baravelli

The ‘Hormuz Shock,’ China’s 15th FYP, and Guangdong’s Energy Dilemma

Dominik Mierzejewski

FACTSHEET: Reading CPEC 2.0 Beyond Connectivity: A Corridor, a Strategy, or a Strategic Dependency?

Jagannath Panda, Anne Weiler, Sevil Khikmatova and Tristan Eng

China’s Strategic Corridor in Pakistan: Progress, Dependency, and the Uncertain Future of CPEC

Jagannath Panda, Anne Weiler, Sevil Khikmatova and Tristan Eng

Innovation Under Fire: Ukraine’s Wartime Adaptation and the Future of European Security

Melita Phachulia

Maritime Order in Asia: Australia and the Indo-Pacific

Bec Strating, Anne Weiler, Sevil Khikmatova and Jagannath Panda

ISDP Spotlight

ISDP Co-hosted the ICES Inaugural Annual Conference in Brussels — ISDP Co-hosted the ICES Inaugural Annual Conference in Brussels

On 10 and 11 June, ISDP participated in the inaugural Annual Conference of the Institute for China-Europe Studies (ICES) in Brussels. Convened by ICES and co-hosted by ISDP and two other partners, the conference brought together leading diplomats, academics, and researchers for critical dialogues on EU-China relations amid great power competition and global order reconfiguration.

Trends in China-India Relations: The Stockholm Center for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs hosted a panel discussion with Dr. Ivan Lidarev and Dr. Abhishek Pratap Singh — Trends in China-India Relations: The Stockholm Center for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs hosted a panel discussion with Dr. Ivan Lidarev and Dr. Abhishek Pratap Singh

On June 8, 2026, the Stockholm Center for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs at the Institute for Security and Development Policy (ISDP) hosted a panel discussion with Dr. Ivan Lidarev, a research fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS) at the National University of Singapore (NUS), and Dr. Abhishek Pratap Singh from the University of Delhi. The panel discussion was moderated by Dr. Jagannath Panda, the Head of the Stockholm Center for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs at ISDP.

Looking back at Professor Ryosei Kokubun’s visit to Stockholm — Looking back at Professor Ryosei Kokubun’s visit to Stockholm

ISDP had the great pleasure of welcoming Professor Ryosei Kokubun, Non-Resident Distinguished Fellow, to Stockholm last week. During this stay, ISDP arranged a roundtable discussion on “Managing Sino-Japanese ties in the contemporary East Asian context” during which he presented future perspectives of the geopolitical balance in the East Asia region, highlighting the complex relations between China and Japan.

Roundtable with Dr. Shan-Jan Sarah Liu: Taiwanese Women’s Experiences in Taiwan’s Military — Roundtable with Dr. Shan-Jan Sarah Liu: Taiwanese Women’s Experiences in Taiwan’s Military

On June 4th, the Stockholm Taiwan Center had the pleasure of hosting a roundtable discussion with Dr. Shan-Jan Sarah Liu. The roundtable discussion was moderated by Yi-Chieh Chen. Dr. Shan-Jan Sarah Liu is Senior Lecturer (Associate Professor) in Gender and Politics at the School of Social and Political Science, University of Edinburgh. The discussion explored Dr. Liu’s findings from her research on Taiwanese women’s experiences in the military and was joined by ISDP research staff and experts from Stockholm’s academic community.

Niklas Swanström and Jagannath Panda participated in the 11th Ulaanbaatar Dialogue (UBD) International Conference — Niklas Swanström and Jagannath Panda participated in the 11th Ulaanbaatar Dialogue (UBD) International Conference

ISDP, represented by Dr. Niklas Swanström and Dr. Jagannath Panda, participated in the 11th Ulaanbaatar Dialogue (UBD) International Conference held in Ulaanbaatar. The Dialogue focused on critical themes such as security challenges and opportunities for peace in Northeast Asia, preventive diplomacy and mediation pathways, artificial intelligence and emerging security risks, regional connectivity between Northeast and Central Asia, and green power corridors linking the two regions.

ISDP welcomed a student group from Penn State University’s College of Information Sciences and Technology — ISDP welcomed a student group from Penn State University’s College of Information Sciences and Technology

On May 21, 2026, ISDP had the great pleasure of welcoming a student group from Penn State University’s College of Information Sciences and Technology. Dr. Niklas Swanström, ISDP’s Executive Director, gave a presentation on the Institute, its research focuses, key issues related to research and innovation security, as well as Swedish security policy in relation to NATO and Russia. Afterwards, the students had the opportunity to ask questions and mingle with the ISDP team.

ISDP hosted an engaging academic interaction with Prof. T. V. Paul and Prof. Nabanita Chaddha Behera — ISDP hosted an engaging academic interaction with Prof. T. V. Paul and Prof. Nabanita Chaddha Behera

The Stockholm Center for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs (SCSA-IPA) hosted an academic interaction titled “India’s Search for Major Power Status and the US-China Rivalry,” bringing together two distinguished scholars of international relations: Prof. T. V. Paul and Prof. Nabanita Chaddha Behera. The discussion explored India’s evolving strategic posture amid intensifying great power competition, particularly in the context of the growing US-China rivalry and the changing architecture of global politics.