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Creating ‘Facts on the Mountains’: China’s Gray Zone Playbook in the Himalayas
China’s policy in the Himalayas represents a calculated and systematic application of the gray zone strategy previously honed in its maritime territorial disputes. Rather than relying solely on direct military action, Beijing employs a military-civil fusion model to reshape the strategic landscape along the border, writes Shinji Yamaguchi. He further argues that central to this effort is an aggressive infrastructure push—building roads, railways, airfields, and strategically placed border villages—that alters the region’s logistical and demographic realities. These developments serve to establish de facto control without crossing the threshold of open conflict, gradually shifting the status quo in China’s favor. This strategy challenges India’s long-standing geographic and temporal advantages by imposing a slow, persistent pressure across the frontier. In other words, this issue brief by Shinji Yamaguchi examines the core elements of China’s Himalayan strategy and its implications, highlighting how Beijing’s calculated actions are redefining the security dynamics of the region through means that remain just below the level of conventional warfare.
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Modi at SCO: The Significance of China in India’s Foreign Policy
Jagannath Panda writes that the recent announcement of a 50 percent tariff on Indian goods by the Trump administration has unsettled India’s growing trust in the United States as a reliable Indo-Pacific partner. At such a critical juncture, Modi’s decision to attend the SCO summit in Tianjin and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s recent visit to India, during which he stated that both countries should be “partners not adversaries,” signal a fresh opportunity to recalibrate China-India ties. Panda argues that in Tianjin, Modi will not merely be participating in another multilateral forum; he will seek to reinforce a vision of India as an autonomous power—one determined to shape, rather than be shaped by, a world order currently influenced by Trump’s assertive policies. The question is: how integral is a partnership with China (and Russia) for India in its search for strategic independence? Read this piece by Jagannath Panda at the South Asian Voices of the Stimson Center.
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Xi Jinping in Lhasa: Spectacular Delusions
Gabriel Lafitte writes that the spectacular party-state has a frontier construction theory that classifies Tibet as a national security risk, because Tibet is full of Tibetans, for whom the Party’s interest does not come first. Partly this is because party-speak makes no sense. Lafitte further writes that one then discovers “promote the construction of the Chinese nation’s community” means abandoning one’s mother tongue, opting instead to believe not only are you really racially Chinese, but so too were all your deluded ancestors. Xi Jinping flies to Lhasa to inspect his campaign to rectify the minds of the Tibetans. On cue the assembled Tibetans duly perform in song and dance their enthusiasm for discovering they are actually Chinese, embracing Chinese characteristics smothered on everything Tibetan, declaiming their love for the core leader because the Party’s interests always come first, argues Gabriel Lafitte. Can we believe what we see? Does Xi Jinping believe his own propaganda? Can performative declamation of slogans actually change minds? Read this timely brief by Gabriel Lafitte here.
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Taiwan’s National Security Strategy under Trump 2.0
William C. Chung writes that in comparison to the cautious restraint of his first term, Trump 2.0 exudes confidence and the demeanor of a domineering CEO in a context of international politics. By fully leveraging America’s unparalleled economic and military influence, within less than a year after returning to office, Trump has already stirred global unrest, writes William C. Chung in this issue brief. Trump 2.0 has shifted U.S. global strategic focus to the Indo-Pacific to counter China’s rise, especially prioritizing military deterrence against Chinese aggression toward Taiwan. His framing of China as America’s primary strategic adversary offers an opportunity for strategic alignment with Taiwan. In response, President Lai Ching-te introduced the “Four Pillars of Peace action plan”- strengthening defense, economic security, alliances with democracies, and dignified cross-Strait engagement - to safeguard peace in the Taiwan Strait and Indo-Pacific stability. Thus, Lai has prioritized self-defense, built strategic interdependence with the U.S., and implemented a “regional joint defense” military strategy to align with Trump’s global strategic outlook, writes William C. Chung.
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What China Does Not Say on Tibet’s Environmental Condition
Anton Harder writes that the Chinese authorities say a great deal about the environmental challenges on the Qinghai-Tibet plateau. But the official narrative omits critical elements, not least the scale of degradation, regional risks, and the political uses of environmental policy. In this piece, Harder explores what is left unsaid in China’s environmental discourse on Tibet, and why these silences matter for the neighborhood and the world. He further argues that the Chinese authorities acknowledge major environmental challenges on the plateau, including glacial retreat, permafrost weakening, and biodiversity loss. A 2019 report by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) recognized the plateau as one of the world’s worst-affected areas for climate change. In fact, in 2023, Beijing passed a new law to protect the region, addressing harmful practices like mining and promoting better monitoring of conditions and risks. Yet much remains unsaid and unwritten in open platforms on Tibet's deteriorating climate conditions and how that affects the Tibetan and the Himalayan communities, writes Anton Harder. Please read this piece here.
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Between Uncertainty and Coercion: The EU’s ‘Least Bad’ Trade Deal with Trump’s America
Johannes Nordin writes that the Trump administration’s August 7 tariffs have officially taken effect. After four months of shifting deadlines and opaque negotiations, some clarity is finally emerging–at least on paper. He further writes that instead of “90 deals in 90 days,” the world saw sweeping unilateral U.S. tariffs and only eight confirmed agreements, one of them with the European Union. Controversial from the onset, the July 27 deal has faced criticism even from reluctant supporters. Brussels and Washington quickly sparred over its terms, analysts questioned its viability, and some declared it dead on arrival. Yet despite its flaws, it serves a strategic purpose while raising questions about the precedent it sets and its political costs, writes Nordin.
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The Ecological Cost of Security: Military Development and Environmental Change in Tibet
The expansion of the Tibet Military Region represents a critical intersection of geopolitical strategy and environmental preservation, creating complex challenges for both regional security and global climate patterns. This policy brief by Niklas Swanström focuses on the larger environmental impact of Chinese militarization in Tibet, acknowledging limitations in assessing effects on local communities due to restricted access for independent researchers, but also the lack of reporting on the Chinese attempts to counter the climate impact. The author argues that current approaches to military development in Tibet are creating environmental changes that extend far beyond the immediate footprint of military activities. These changes threaten not only local ecosystems but also regional climate stability and water security for hundreds of millions of people downstream. Addressing these challenges will require fundamental reconsideration of how military infrastructure is designed, constructed, and operated in this uniquely sensitive environment, writes Swanström. Download and read this policy brief here.
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How the Nordic Countries Can Engage Central Asia
Johan Engvall and Svante E. Cornell write on why and how the Nordics have more in common with Central Asia, creating a natural context of cooperation. They write that the Nordic region is greatly concerned about neighboring Russia, while its relatively small and trade-dependent economies expose it to China’s economic power. This makes Central Asia a fruitful dialogue partner, given the intense experiences Central Asian states have of interactions with Moscow and Beijing. They further write that policymakers in the Nordic states may have more acute concerns at present, whether relating to Russian aggression, the faltering Transatlantic link, or unrest in the Middle East. Still, it would make a lot of sense for them to reciprocate the Central Asian outreach and work to formalize a dialogue format with the region. Read this piece here.
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Visegrad Four and India: Searching for Collaboration Agenda amid Global Geopolitical Upheaval
This special report by Jagannath Panda and Matej Šimalčík covers the emerging dynamics and the scope for strategic collaboration between India and the Visegrad group. They write that India’s strategic vision for Europe has traditionally focused on the continent’s heavyweights, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. These states are long-standing partners in trade, defense, and multilateral forums, often dominating Europe’s voice in global affairs. However, the rapidly shifting geopolitical environment, intensified by the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and the evolving Sino-American competition, has necessitated a reassessment, argues Panda and Šimalčík. They further write that Central and Eastern Europe, particularly the Visegrad Four (V4), is no longer just a peripheral theatre of diplomacy. It is fast becoming a zone of geopolitical contestation and economic resilience, one India can no longer afford to overlook. Read and download this report published by the Central European Institute of Asian Studies here.
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Creating ‘Facts on the Mountains’: China’s Gray Zone Playbook in the Himalayas
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Modi at SCO: The Significance of China in India’s Foreign Policy
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Xi Jinping in Lhasa: Spectacular Delusions
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Taiwan’s National Security Strategy under Trump 2.0
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What China Does Not Say on Tibet’s Environmental Condition
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Between Uncertainty and Coercion: The EU’s ‘Least Bad’ Trade Deal with Trump’s America
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The Ecological Cost of Security: Military Development and Environmental Change in Tibet
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How the Nordic Countries Can Engage Central Asia
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Visegrad Four and India: Searching for Collaboration Agenda amid Global Geopolitical Upheaval
Latest Publications
Modi at SCO: The Significance of China in India’s Foreign Policy
With Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi preparing to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin at the end of August and expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping, the global stage is […]
Xi Jinping in Lhasa: Spectacular Delusions
The spectacular party-state has a frontier construction theory that classifies Tibet as a national security risk, because Tibet is full of Tibetans, for whom the Party’s interest do not come […]
Taiwan’s National Security Strategy under Trump 2.0
Compared to the cautious restraint of his first term, Trump 2.0 exudes confidence and the demeanor of a domineering CEO in a context of international politics. By fully leveraging America’s […]
Books
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Arabs, Turks and Persians: Geopolitics and Ideology in the Greater Middle East
For decades, the Greater Middle East has been a leading challenge to American foreign policy. This vast region – ranging from North Africa in the west to Afghanistan in the […]
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The US and EU, and the Emerging Supply Chain Network: Politics, Prospects, and Allies
The Global Supply Chains have evolved from simply logistical achievements to being the bedrock of the global economy. Driven by technological advances and geopolitical shifts, this transformation underscores the critical […]
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IN DEFENSE OF THE LIBERAL INTERNATIONAL ORDER
In recent years, the geopolitical fight for global economic, diplomatic, and institutional control has acutely intensified, accentuating the crisis in the existing post-World War II Liberal International Order (LIO), championed […]
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Quad Plus and Indo-Pacific: The Changing Profile of International Relations
This book explores how the Quad Plus mechanism is set to reshape the global multilateral economic and security co-operations between Quad partner countries and the rest of the world. With […]