Nordkorea – strategisk hotspot
Niklas Swanström
Kina är delvs bundet av sitt vänskapsavtal med Nordkorea. Den kinesiska regeringen har dock gjort klart att man inte intervenerar om Nordkorea provocerar fram en konflikt, och det är tveksamt att man militärt skulle stödja landet utan en direkt amerikansk invasion av Nordkorea som hotar kinesiska intressen, skriver Niklas Swanström.
Situationen på Koreahalvön har kraftigt försämrats under 2017. Kärnvapen- och missilutvecklingen samt relaterade provokationer och upptrappningar är för Nordkorea en långsiktig strategi att bli en kärnvapenmakt. Konflikten passar in i den generella trenden av militär upprustning, sino-amerikansk rivalitet, frånvaron av en regional säkerhetsstruktur samt en historisk misstro mellan de olika aktörerna. Regimen i Pyongyang ser kärnvapnen som ett långsiktigt skydd mot amerikansk aggression. De regionala aktörerna har vitt skilda uppfattningar om hur konflikten ska hanteras. Kina och Ryssland säger sig föredra dialog och menar att kärnvapenfrågan kan komma senare i processen.
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