The Tawang Effect: Forecasting China-India Relations in 2023
Jagannath P. Panda
Foreseeing a trend in China-India ties is a predictable affair at present: bilateral antagonism is taking a lead over any pretense of engagement and stability. The passing years increasingly suggest that.
On December 9, the Indian and Chinese military forces clashed along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Yangtse area of the Tawang sector in the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh. This is one of the major incidents that resulted in injuries (but not fatalities) after more than two years of the China-India defining clash at Galwan in the Ladakh region. Last year, too, although there were reports of a minor face-off between Indian and Chinese patrol parties in the eastern sector, it did not result in injuries and the matter was resolved at the local military commanders’ level. Before 2021, another such incident in this sector dates back to 2016.
It is highly likely that the high-altitude joint exercises (“Yudhabhyas,” literally war practice) conducted between U.S. and Indian troops in northern India’s Uttarakhand state days before was a catalyst for the December border incident; China’s Ministry for Foreign Affairs criticized the exercises as a violation of bilateral agreements and not conducive to building trust.
Nonetheless, instances of Indian Army patrols clashing with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops are not out of the ordinary due to the differing perceptions of the LAC between the two countries: there exists no delineation of the border, nor any agreement on the sharing of maps (about 20 years ago, there was an initial exchange of maps on the Middle Sector where the dispute is relatively minor). Moreover, China’s projection of a flexible LAC plays to its expansionist tendencies, enabling it to continually engage in so-called “salami tactics.” How far will the latest fracas impact India-China ties in 2023? Is tension in border areas becoming a “new normal” in China-India ties? Can a temporary political, if not a permanent, solution emerge in 2023?
Read this article by Jagannath Panda at The Diplomat.
Related Publications
-
Quad Plus EU: A Viable Option for the Times?
Today, the primary Indo-Pacific contest is not just about the China-US hegemony. It also involves a range of so-called “middle powers” – including Australia, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, […]
-
The Dalai Lama’s Succession: Strategic Realities of the Tibet Question
Executive Summary The 14th Dalai Lama Tenzin Gyatso remains one of the most recognized and beloved spiritual leaders of contemporary times. By China, he is viewed in unflattering terms, ranging […]
-
Engaging The Indo-Pacific: Some Pointers For Europe
The regional dynamics of the Indo-Pacific Region (IPR), especially maritime security-related, are distinctly different from other regions, especially Europe. There are existential sub-regional dynamics that vary across the IPR, which […]
-
India in a world of asymmetrical multipolarity
In the past decade, the world has gathered an irreversible momentum in global geopolitical transitions, including the fragmentation and reconfiguration of the international order. This is largely due to the […]
-
Can the China-India Bilateral Gain Momentum in 2023?
The Tawang incident in December 2022 was not a surprise. Both India and China have been steadily investing in border infrastructure development as their respective forces have entered into clashes […]
-
Revitalizing INSTC: Analyzing Geopolitical Realignments and the China Factor
In recent years, the rise of Asia as the geoeconomic and geostrategic fulcrum has not only realigned global geopolitics but also reasserted the need for regional connectivity. For example, the […]