On the Path to Civil War: Beijing Navigates Post-Coup Myanmar
Johannes Nordin
Abstract
Protests against the military’s February 1 coup d’état continue in Myanmar. On March 27, the bloodiest day yet, over 114 civilians, including many children, were shot by regime forces. The heavy-handed repression has since persisted, and while the killings have drawn widespread international condemnation and unilateral sanctions, there is still no joint United Nations Security Council (UNSC) action. China, alongside Russia and several of Myanmar’s neighbors, continues to insist on non-interference in Myanmar’s internal affairs, supporting ASEAN’s mediation efforts while expressing concern over the escalating violence.
As Naypyidaw’s main trade partner and arms supplier, Beijing holds a prominent position in Myanmar. On January 11, 20 days ahead of the coup, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with now-deposed State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi and Commander-turned-junta-leader Min Aung Hlaing, both of whom pledged continued support for projects linked to the Belt and Road Initiative. In the evolving post-coup environment, the Chinese leadership is unwilling to jeopardize its position by potentially betting on the wrong horse, having cultivated ties with both sides of the power struggle. Nevertheless, the developing instability is on the verge of turning Myanmar into a failed state, with ethnic separatist groups siding with the protestors against the coup regime. Beijing’s position of non-interference is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain, both internationally and within Myanmar.
Related Publications
-
ISDP Annual Report 2023
ISDP’s Annual Report for the year 2023. We look back on 2023, a year in which tensions and conflicts captured the strategic space in ISDP’s focus areas, making headlines around […]
-
Taiwan and the Diplomatic Squeeze
In mid-March 2023, the self-governing island of Taiwan lost another one of its already few diplomatic allies. Announcing the severing of diplomatic ties between Taiwan and Honduras on Twitter on March 15, […]
-
Taiwan’s Southbound Drive towards Southeast Asia
This article examines Taiwan’s foreign policy towards Southeast Asia during Ma Ying-jeou’s two-term (2008–2016) and Tsai Ing-wen’s first-term (2016–2020) presidencies. It discusses the context of East Asian regionalization and regionalism, […]
-
Risk Reduction and Crisis Management on the Korean Peninsula
The situation on the Korean Peninsula is inherently intertwined with the growing instability of the East Asian security environment, where high tensions significantly increase the risk of unintended incidents and armed […]
-
Connecting Taiwan and Finland: An Interview with Prof. Julie Yu-Wen Chen
Julie Yu-wen Chen is Professor of Chinese Studies at the University of Helsinki in Finland. Since 2023, she has been involved in the EU twinning project “The EU in the […]