Myanmar and the Growing Influence of China

Abstract

This issue brief examines China’s influence operations in Myanmar, focusing on the tools and strategies Beijing employs to advance its political, security, and economic interests. It argues that China’s approach is multifaceted, encompassing engagement with ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), weapons transfers, mediation and ceasefire facilitation, diplomatic support for the Myanmar military, and extensive economic engagement. China has sought to balance its relationships with the military and EAOs while using its influence to protect its strategic interests, particularly along the China-Myanmar border and in major infrastructure and resource projects. Its diplomatic support has provided the Myanmar military with important international backing, while economic ties have deepened China’s presence in Myanmar’s political and economic spheres. The case demonstrates that influence operations can remain contested despite significant power asymmetries. Ultimately, China’s preference for stability has not necessarily translated into support for durable peace or democratic governance.

Introduction

In the realm of international politics, sovereign states often attempt to influence the behavior of other states. Attempts to influence can involve the use of force or the threat of force. There are also softer dimensions of influence that involve economic incentives and the reframing of other countries’ norms and values. As long as influence operations result in mutually beneficial outcomes, they go uncontested. On the other hand, influence operations could result in the suppression of local voices, interests, and domestic initiatives. While it is critical to evaluate the impact of operations on a sovereign state’s ability to act independently, the challenge is that such operations are often difficult to identify.

Influence operations can be broadly categorized into two types. First, sovereign states engage specific individuals or organizations in other countries to ensure they are favorably disposed towards their initiatives. Often, such operations are conducted clandestinely and are therefore very difficult to evaluate. On the other hand, sovereign states also attempt to influence the political and economic processes of other countries. For instance, while the United States’ Marshall Plan aimed to rebuild Europe, devastated by war, it was also guided by a political imperative to contain the spread of communism into Western Europe. Such behavior by sovereign states in influencing others is relatively more amenable to evaluation.

Since China has emerged as a major power, it has become necessary to study and evaluate its influence operations abroad. This issue brief uses China-Myanmar interactions as a case study to examine the tools and tactics Beijing deploys to promote and protect its interests in neighboring countries such as Myanmar. China has a multi-pronged approach—modulating the trajectory of ethnic conflict, selling weapons, facilitating ceasefires, providing diplomatic support on international platforms, and engaging economically—to project influence in Myanmar.

Ethnic Conflict

Myanmar-China relations are often described as a “Pauk-phaw” friendship, which connotes a fraternal relationship. China and Myanmar share a 2,204-km border, dotted with ethnic communities on both sides. There is considerable power asymmetry between the two countries.  China is a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and had a GDP of approximately USD 18.74 trillion in 2024. China’s rise as a major power has been rapid and dramatic. It clocked double-digit economic growth for over two decades and continues to be the world’s largest exporter. China has a very large army with over 2 million active personnel. On the other hand, since its independence, Myanmar has experienced persistent political instability, as various armed groups controlled large parts of the country. Because of its autarkic economic policies, Myanmar has remained a least developed country (LDC).

During the Second World War, Myanmar served as a transit country through which the Kuomintang (KMT) received supplies from the Allied powers. After the Second World War, large numbers of KMT troops moved into Myanmar and used it as a base to launch attacks on China. Although the then-government of Myanmar played no role in supporting the KMT, the bilateral relationship between the two countries was marked by suspicion. China sought to gain leverage in its relations with Myanmar by extending support to the Communist Party of Burma (CPB). The prolonged communist insurgency, along with other Ethnic Armed Groups (EAO), ensured that Myanmar was tied down in managing internal stability.

After Mao Zedong’s death and Deng Xiaoping’s rise, China’s support for the CPB began to wane. By the late 1970s, the CPB had lost momentum and collapsed completely by the end of the 1980s. The shift in Chinese strategy was guided by geopolitical and geo-economic considerations. Myanmar’s geopolitical location became increasingly salient for China. Myanmar provides China with access to the Indian Ocean region and is critical to Beijing’s two-ocean strategy. China was also eager to deepen economic ties with Southeast Asian countries to drive growth in its south-western provinces, such as Yunnan, which shares a long border with Myanmar. Furthermore, Myanmar has significant natural resources that could be used to power economic growth in provinces such as Yunnan in China.