Gwadar’s Strategic Paradox: CPEC and China’s Geopolitics of Control by Other Means

The port of Gwadar presents a strategic puzzle: despite operating under CPEC since 2016, it remains commercially underutilized, yet Beijing, Islamabad, and regional observers treat it as geopolitically consequential. Gwadar sits at the hinge of China’s continental and maritime ambitions, illustrating how the BRI may reshape Indian Ocean security and broader Eurasian/Indo-Pacific power distributions. This issue brief addresses the puzzle by situating Gwadar within the “silk cage” framework and classical geopolitics. It argues that CPEC’s terrestrial logic advances China’s goal of Eurasian hegemony through connectivity and managed dependence, while its maritime logic emphasizes Indian Ocean access, infrastructure, and long-term presence along key sea lanes. China’s Global Security Initiative (GSI) further institutionalizes protection, security cooperation, and corridor governance with Pakistan alongside investment, preserving dual-use optionality even in the absence of significant cargo volumes and profits. For policymakers, the brief clarifies why Gwadar’s value lies less in the port itself and more in what it means for China’s Eurasian and Indian Ocean hegemonic goals. Accordingly, it outlines achievable policies—maritime domain awareness, partner coordination, and resilience measures—to constrain Gwadar’s strategic value and reduce its operational usefulness as a node for Chinese access and force projection.