Revisiting the offense-defense balance: drone warfare and Taiwan’s asymmetrical defense strategy

Chinese activities in the Taiwan Strait have intensified pressure on Taiwan’s defense. Using offensive-defense balance (ODB) theory as an analytical framework, this paper evaluates the role of drone warfare in Taiwan’s asymmetric strategy through four indicators derived from Glaser and Kaufmann: cost, territorial goals, optimality, and force employment. It argues that UAVs can enhance Taiwan’s defensive position by increasing attrition, complicating logistics, and raising uncertainty prior to conflict. However, this defensive advantage is conditional and requires cost-effective procurement, production resilience, doctrinal adaptation, and the ability to counter PLA countermeasures. As China accelerates drone capacity, Taiwan’s ability to maintain technological symmetry becomes central to preserving deterrence. The paper argues drones compress adaptation and render the ODB in the Taiwan Strait dynamic rather than structurally fixed.