The Fourth Phase in the Taiwan Strait Military Standoff: Emerging Dynamics and the Prospect of War

Yifei Zhu and Jingdong Yuan

Issue & Policy Briefs August, 2025

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • The cross-strait military standoff has entered its fourth phase—a “renewed cold war”—following China’s military drills in 2022, signaling heightened risks for armed confrontation.
  • Military exercises, force deployments, and arms buildup among China, Taiwan, and the U.S. are intensifying, creating a vicious cycle of escalating tensions.
  • China’s gray-zone tactics against Taiwan—including military exercises, patrols, coast guard surveillance and intrusions, and cyber operations—have be come routine occurrences.
  • Economic interdependence, which once served as a crucial buffer against conflicts, is becoming less effective in this role.
  • The prospect of a war at a definite point in the near future remains not high, as the escalating tensions suggest China’s strategy of maximizing pressure on Taiwan to force negotiations rather than following a set timeline of military operations.
  • To address the rising but not imminent risks, the EU should develop a coordinated strategy for a Taiwan contingency, focusing on leveraging its unique position to mediate peace between the rival parties.

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