Archipelago in the Crossfire: Indonesia Between Washington and Beijing

As strategic competition between China and the United States intensifies across the Indo-Pacific, Southeast Asia has become a critical arena of competition. Positioned at the center of this contest is Indonesia, one of the region’s most politically influential countries and a leading member of ASEAN. Given its strategic importance, Jakarta is likely to become a central focus for both Beijing and Washington as they vie to advance their competing interests in the region.

Examining Indonesia’s past political relationships with the two leading powers of the Indo-Pacific offers valuable insight into how past interactions may shape Jakarta’s political decision-making in the event of a major regional crisis that might threaten the existing balance of power. This paper argues that China faces greater challenges than the United States in its bilateral relationship with Indonesia due to a more problematic historical legacy. Recognizing this asymmetry is crucial when considering possible scenarios for future regional developments.