Jagannath Panda was quoted in the South China Morning Post on how Chinese arms exporters could be the big winners in any Pakistan-Saudi JF-17 talks
January 14, 2026: Jagannath Panda, Head of the Stockholm Center for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs, was quoted in the South China Morning Post about Chinese arms exporters may be the big winners in any Pakistan-Saudi JF-17 talks: He said that for China the reported Pakistan-Saudi JF-17 understanding was “less about revenue and more about strategic signalling”.“The JF-17 … has long served Beijing as a low-cost, politically flexible export platform – a way to embed Chinese avionics, weapons compatibility and training ecosystems into partner air forces without the diplomatic baggage of high-end systems,” he said.“If Saudi Arabia engages even partially – whether through evaluation, limited induction or training – it signals that Chinese-enabled platforms can enter traditionally US-anchored security spaces in the Gulf.”
However, Panda noted that China was also likely to remain cautious, as Riyadh was not a conventional Chinese arms client and Beijing would want to “avoid overtly antagonising Washington or jeopardising its broader Gulf economic equities”.“Thus, China benefits indirectly: enhanced prestige of its co-development model, validation of its defence industrial maturity and proof that Sino-Pakistani platforms can be politically palatable beyond South Asia,” he said.“Regionally, this strengthens China’s narrative as a system enabler rather than a dominant security patron, allowing Beijing to expand influence quietly while Pakistan acts as the visible interlocutor – buffering China from direct political costs.”
Despite the JF-17’s recent export record, some analysts suggested the deal may not proceed because the Royal Saudi Air Force (RSAF) was already operating more advanced Western fighter jets.Aviation analyst Richard Aboulafia, managing director of AeroDynamic Advisory, a US consulting firm, said the low-cost JF-17 was less effective than its Western counterparts and was operated primarily by Pakistan.“Saudi Arabia only operates very high-end, expensive fighters such as the F-15 and Eurofighter, operated by some of the best air forces in the world,” he said. “There is no chance that the RSAF will get the JF-17. Politics has nothing to do with this.”
However, the potential deal “subtly reshapes” the arms market logic in West Asia, rather than displacing US or European suppliers outright, according to Panda.China appeared to be positioned to “occupy the middle tier [with] affordable, adaptable systems that fill capability gaps, diversify supply chains and reduce dependence on Western political conditionality”.“For Gulf states, this opens a hedging pathway. Chinese systems can be trialled without fully committing to Beijing as a primary security guarantor,” Panda said.